New York Apartment Prices Q1, 2020
Posted by Wei Min Tan on April 6, 2020
New York property report: Q1’2020 Manhattan condo market
The Q1 2020 Manhattan property market can be divided into (i) Jan through mid March, and (ii) mid through end of March.
In the Jan through mid March period, sales activity was up and this was evidenced by the 13.5 percent increase in sales volume of Condos/Coops compared to prior year. Specific to Condos, sales volume was up 19.2 percent. Real estate showings were still happening although there were no more handshakes and hand sanitizers were at every open house. Many sellers, fearing strangers in their homes, decided not to list their property and this was reflected in the 8 percent decline in listing inventory from Q4’2019 to Q1’2020. Historically, Q4 to Q1 tends to see listing inventory increase by around 11 percent. For Condos, listing supply was down to 9.5 months, a reduction of 23 percent compared to last year.
Starting mid March, COVID-19 hit New York like nothing we’ve ever seen before. Number of COVID-19 cases and deaths skyrocketed, and New York became the global epicenter of the COVID-19 virus. Except for essential workers, everyone else was ordered to stay home to limit the spread of the virus. The real estate industry came to a sudden stop on March 20 when Andrew Cuomo, New York governor, declared that real estate agents cannot show property in person. But even before the no-showing order, most real estate brokerages closed their physical locations as transactions and administration moved online in efforts to mitigate spread of the virus.
Currently there is no “market” for Manhattan real estate. A market needs participants who are viewing property. None of this is happening. The only showings going on are by new development sales offices that are conducting virtual showings (over video). But in property transactions, virtual showings cannot replace in-person showings. Buyers wants to see and feel what they are paying millions for. And this is not happening now.
Deal Example: Investor client’s condo at 200 Chambers Street, luxury building in Tribeca with premium price and rents. Purchased at approx $1.5 million. The low carrying costs and high demand make this a good investment. Located next to Whole Foods, World Trade Center, Goldman Sachs headquarters. This apartment faces the building’s zen garden and comes with a washer/dryer within the apartment.
New York (Manhattan) Q1, 2020 Condo:
Listing inventory fell 7.9 percent compared to last year as sellers retracted from the market amid concerns about COVID-19. They didn’t want to sell for fear of exposure to strangers coming to their homes and also for concern that COVID-19 is depressing the market and sales price.
Meanwhile, number of sales jumped 19.2 percent reflective of the Jan to mid-March period, before COVID-19 hit New York and New York became a global epicenter for the virus. Since mid-March, New York City has a lockdown in effect and the real estate market came to a halt.
Average price $2.587m (-22.7% vs prior year)
Avg price per SF $1,923 (-17.5%)
Transactions 1,020 (+19.2%)
Listing inventory 3,230 (-7.9%)
Days on market 131 (+12.9%)
Months of supply 9.5 months (-22.8%)
Deal Example: Client purchased this unit at 88 Greenwich Street. 17th floor with double height ceiling and water views. One block from World Trade Center means strong appreciation potential. There are 4 new residential condos coming up in the area, all with much higher prices per square foot. The areas is transforming and 88 Greenwich will benefit from it.
Residential Rents Feb 2020:
Average Rent $4,385 (+3.9% vs prior year)
Rent per sqft $71.44 (+7.9%)
New developments comprise 10.9 percent of overall sales. It also saw a huge jump in sales volume, increasing by 66.9 percent over prior year. Price per square foot was at $2,541 while the median new development sales price was at $2.80m.
Median price $2.80m (-3.2%)
Avg price per SF $2,541 (-32.9%)
Number of sales 262 (+66.9%)
Listing discount 7.8%
Months of supply 11.3 (-41.5%)
Sales share of market 10.9%
Data Source: Miller Samuel and Elliman Report
Article updated April 6, 2020
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