New York Apartment Prices Q1, 2021
Posted by Wei Min Tan on May 19, 2021
New York property report: Q1’2021 Manhattan condo market
The overall theme for Q1’2021 was a surge in sales volume as buyers rush back into the market driven by low mortgage rates, lowered prices due to Covid and optimism with the Covid vaccines. Sales volume increased 20.4 percent compared to Q4 and 6.5 percent compared to prior year. Meanwhile, the rental market is also picking up as people move back into Manhattan because employers are calling people back into the office.
Key Point 1: Sales volume up
For the overall condo and coop market, sales volume in Q1 increased by 29 percent compared to Q4 and 2 percent compared to prior year. The condo market had the same trend with increases of 20.4 percent and 6.5 percent respectively. As a broker, I am seeing first hand as buyers come back into the market and open houses have tremendous traffic during the weekends. A totally different world compared to 2020.
Key Point 2: Inventory absorbed
Inventory in Q1 at 7,224 apartments for sale for the total condo/coop market is 12 percent lower than in Q4. This is a reflection of contracts signed exceeding new listings coming into the market. We have been experiencing a decline in supply as 300+ contracts are signed weekly, a record level.
Deal Example: Investor client’s condo at 200 Chambers Street, luxury building in Tribeca with premium price and rents. Purchased at approx $1.5 million. The low carrying costs and high demand make this a good investment. Located next to Whole Foods, World Trade Center, Goldman Sachs headquarters. This apartment faces the building’s zen garden and comes with a washer/dryer within the apartment.
Weimin’s article, Investing in Tribeca property
Key Point 3: Months of supply at 8.8 months, back to historical level
In Q1’2021, inventory represented 8.8 months of supply. Note that the 20-year average is 8.7 months. Q1 months of supply declined 32 percent compared to Q4. Months of supply reflects how many months it takes to sell current inventory.
New York (Manhattan) Q1, 2021 Condo:
Negotiability, reflected in the listing discount of 4.8 percent, declined from Q4 when it was 7.6 percent. Number of sales increased 20.4 percent compared to Q4 and 6.5 percent compared to prior year.
Average price $2.41m (-6.7% vs prior year)
Avg price per SF $1,714 (-10.9%)
Number of sales 1,086 (+6.5%)
Listing inventory 3,490 (+8%)
Listing discount 4.8%
Days on market 159 (+21.4%)
Months of supply 9.6 months (+1.1%)
Deal Example: Client purchased this unit at 88 Greenwich Street. 17th floor with double height ceiling and water views. One block from World Trade Center means strong appreciation potential. There are 4 new residential condos coming up in the area, all with much higher prices per square foot. The areas is transforming and 88 Greenwich will benefit from it.
Weimin’s article, Investing in a Manhattan penthouse apartment
Residential Rents March 2021:
The rental market is recovering as renters move back into Manhattan. This is because companies have started calling people back to the office. Some 2 days a week, some full time.
During Covid, the rental market was hit much worse than the sale market. Offices all had work-from-home policies. As a result, many tenants didn’t renew leases and moved out of Manhattan temporarily, to save on rent and because much more space is needed when everyone is working/schooling from home. The rental market dropped 25 percent as inventory and vacancy rate shot up.
Average Rent $4,001 (-6.9% vs prior year)
Rent per sqft $62.25 (-12.3%)
Deal Example: Client’s new condo in Hudson Square next the new Google downtown headquarters (the new glass building on the left). We booked at pre-construction, rented in 2 weeks.
Weimin’s article, Buying a vacation home in Manhattan
New development sales increased 9.2 percent compared to prior year as buyers take advantage of the last remaining deal opportunities. Listing discount is 8.6 percent as developers are still negotiating and offering concessions.
Average price $3.27m (-15.2%)
Avg price per SF $2,152 (-15.3%)
Number of sales 286 (+9.2%)
Listing discount 8.6%
Months of supply 8.4 (-25.7%)
Share of market 11.6%
Data Source: Miller Samuel
Article updated May 19, 2021
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