New York Apartment Prices Q4, 2020
Posted by Wei Min Tan on January 14, 2021
New York property report: Q4’2020 Manhattan condo market
The overall theme for Q4’2020 was a marked improvement over Q3 but still not at the 2019 pre-Covid levels. Sales supply is high but number of deals signed have been increasing weekly since the bottom of May – July 2020. Meanwhile, the rental market continues to be weak with record high vacancy rate and supply as tenants did not renew leases and chose to move out of Manhattan temporarily because of work-from-home policies.
Key Point 1: Sales volume up compared to Q3
For the overall condo and coop market, sales volume in Q4 increased by 39 percent compared to Q3. However, still 21 percent lower than pre-Covid Q4’2019. As a broker, I have seen first hand as buyers came back into the market and bid on apartments that have been sitting for months from Feb to August 2020.
Key Point 2: Inventory absorbed
Inventory in Q4 at 8,277 apartments for sale for the total condo/coop market was still high. However, much inventory has been absorbed since Q3. Q4 inventory level was down 11 percent compared to the record high inventory set in Q3’2020. Q4 inventory is still 25 percent higher than pre-Covid Q4’2019 which had inventory of 6,643 units.
Deal Example: Investor client’s condo at 200 Chambers Street, luxury building in Tribeca with premium price and rents. Purchased at approx $1.5 million. The low carrying costs and high demand make this a good investment. Located next to Whole Foods, World Trade Center, Goldman Sachs headquarters. This apartment faces the building’s zen garden and comes with a washer/dryer within the apartment.
Weimin’s article, Investing in Tribeca property
Key Point 3: Months of supply at 13 months, down from 20 months
In Q4’2020, listing inventory represented 13 months of supply. While this is 57 percent higher than pre-Covid 2019, it was down 36 percent compared to Q3 which was at 20.3 months. Months of supply reflects how many months it takes to sell current inventory.
New York (Manhattan) Q4, 2020 Condo:
Negotiability, reflected in the listing discount of 7.6 percent, declined from Q3. In Q3, listing discount was 10.3 percent, the highest in 11 years. Number of sales increased 47 percent compared to Q3 but is still 12 percent lower than pre-Covid 2019.
Average price $2.69m (+2.1% vs prior year)
Avg price per SF $1,898 (-8.2%)
Number of sales 902 (-11.5%)
Listing inventory 4,046 (+14.4%)
Listing discount 7.6%
Days on market 133 (+25.5%)
Months of supply 13.5 months (+29.8%)
Deal Example: Client purchased this unit at 88 Greenwich Street. 17th floor with double height ceiling and water views. One block from World Trade Center means strong appreciation potential. There are 4 new residential condos coming up in the area, all with much higher prices per square foot. The areas is transforming and 88 Greenwich will benefit from it.
Weimin’s article, Investing in a Manhattan penthouse apartment
Residential Rents November 2020:
The rental market was hit much worse than the sale market. Offices all have work-from-home policies until mid 2021. As a result, many tenants didn’t renew leases and moved out of Manhattan temporarily, to save on rent and because much more space is needed when everyone is working/schooling from home. Rental inventory increased 180 percent to 15,130 units and vacancy rate shot up to 6.14 percent.
Average Rent $3,745 (-16.1% vs prior year)
Rent per sqft $59.05 (-17.6%)
New development sales volume fell by 5.8 percent compared to prior year but was up 36 percent compared to Q3. Listing discount 5.9 percent, compared to 8.5% in Q3 and 8.9% in Q4’2019 (without COVID).
Average price $3.823m (-11.1%)
Avg price per SF $2,346 (-23.6%)
Number of sales 292 (-5.8%)
Listing discount 5.9%
Months of supply 9.2 (-7.1%)
Sales share of market 15.3%
Data Source: Miller Samuel
Article updated Jan 14, 2021
What We Do
We focus on global investors buying Manhattan condos for portfolio diversification and long term return-on-investment.
1) Identify the right buy based on objectives
2) Manage the buy process
3) Rent out the property
4) Manage tenants
5) Market the property at the eventual sale
Follow On Instagram