Manhattan Real Estate Market Forecast 2024

Posted by Wei Min Tan on March 15, 2024

Manhattan Real Estate Market Forecast: A Shift Towards Stability in 2024?  The Manhattan real estate market, a microcosm of New York City’s dynamism, experienced a rollercoaster ride in 2023.  Soaring interest rates dampened buyer enthusiasm, leading to a significant drop in sales volume compared to the record highs of 2021.  However, as we enter the second quarter of 2024, experts see signs of a stabilizing market with potential opportunities for both buyers and sellers.

Read Wei Min’s article: Manhattan Condo Historical Price Trend

Read about Wei Min’s style in Best Manhattan property agents and Role of a buyer’s broker.

Market Indicators Pointing Towards a Shift:

Interest Rates:  A key factor influencing affordability, mortgage rates are expected to stabilize in the latter half of 2024, making financing a home purchase more manageable.  The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions will be crucial in this regard.

Inventory Levels:  Inventory in Manhattan started 2024 at its lowest point in eight years.  While a positive sign for sellers, a gradual increase in listings is anticipated throughout the year, offering buyers more options.  Keeping an eye on monthly new listings data can provide valuable insights.

Sales Activity:  Sales volume is expected to pick up with improved affordability and increased inventory.  However, the pace might not match the peak of 2021.  Monitoring monthly sales figures will reveal how buyer activity unfolds.

Job Market:  New York City’s job market remains a bright spot.  Continued job growth, particularly in high-paying sectors like finance and technology, will fuel demand for housing, especially in Manhattan.  The latest unemployment rate for the city is a metric to watch, as it reflects economic health.

Inflation:  Inflation, though a national concern, is projected to ease somewhat in 2024.  This could offer some relief to both buyers and sellers, impacting everything from purchasing power to renovation costs.  For context, inflation reached 9.1 percent in June 2022, a 40-year-high.  In December 2022, it was at 6.5 percent, and in January 2024, it came down to 3.1 percent.

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Deal Example:  305 E 51 St, Halcyon.  Buyer client reserved property at pre-construction stage.  Completed 2 years later and rented out with strong cashflow to owner since then.  Property is close to the United Nations, Citigroup Center, Blackstone, Blackrock, Chase Bank. 

Read Wei Min’s article: Engaging property agent in Manhattan, New York

How much Manhattan residential condos cost now

Back in 1999, price per sqft was $480.  The prior annual peak was in 2017 at $2,149.  The below are key data points on a Manhattan condominium in Q4, 2023, the latest datapoint.

Average price                        $2.92m (+6.6% vs prior year)

Price per square foot           $2,150 (+3.7%)

Median price                          $1.66m (+0.6%)

Transactions                          989 (-14.3%)

Months of supply                  10 months (+14.9%)

Read Wei Min’s article: Is now a good time to invest in Manhattan, New York residential property?

Navigating the Market in 2024:

For buyers, the current market presents an opportunity to secure a property with potentially more negotiating power compared to the seller-dominated market of 2021.  However, staying informed about interest rate fluctuations and economic indicators is crucial.

Sellers, on the other hand, might need to adjust pricing strategies to align with the changing market conditions.  A focus on highlighting unique property features and capitalizing on the still-limited inventory could be beneficial.

A Word of Caution:

Real estate forecasts are inherently prone to unforeseen circumstances.  Global economic factors and local policy changes can always influence the market’s trajectory.  Consulting with a qualified real estate professional is essential for making informed decisions specific to your needs.

Deal example:  Represented multiple investor clients in reserving Tribeca Green at initial pricing.   This was Manhattan’s hottest new development.  

Read Wei Min’s article: Benefits and Downside Risks of Buying Manhattan Property

What We Do

We focus on global investors buying Manhattan condos for portfolio diversification and long term return-on-investment.
1) Identify the right buy based on objectives
2) Manage the buy process
3) Rent out the property
4) Manage tenants
5) Market the property at the eventual sale