October 2021 Manhattan Property Market Update
Posted by Wei Min Tan on October 13, 2021
3-minute October 2021 update on Manhattan property market by Wei Min Tan. Key points to note are:
1. Q3 sales volume highest in 32 years
2. Growth in $4M+ apartments
3. Inventory down
1. Q3 sales volume is the highest in 32 years
Why? It is because interest rates are at historical lows and there’s pent up demand. Buyers who were supposed to buy last year didn’t buy, so everything got moved forward to this year. Another thing is there’s very high vaccination adoption in New York City. And lastly, the economy has been improving.
2. Growth is larger in the $4M+ apartments
Growth is higher in the larger apartments because of the need for more space post pandemic.
3. Inventory is very low
Q3’2021 number of sales is 242 percent higher than last year and 29 percent higher than the last quarter. Months of supply is at 5.5 months. Note that the 20-year average is 8.7 months. Months of supply declined by 24 percent compared to last quarter and 75 percent compared to last year.
For new developments, the trend is the same. Number of sales represents a huge dip from last year and months of supply is at 4.8 months. It’s 67 percent lower than last year. Sales volume is really high and supply is really low.
The historical price per square foot for a Manhattan condo goes up consistently with inflation and only declines with a recession. The first quarter is reflective of the pandemic 2020 deals, the second and third quarters became a sellers market. The sale market is very hot but the rental market is crazy right now, as thousands move back into Manhattan.
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